I think this sentiment has been said before, but I’ll put my take on it.
Until and not before the west actively engages with overwhelming force against the Jihadists – A lot of the ME is going to burn. The whole hearts and minds mantra is worthless and totally counter productive over here. It was in Viet-Nam and is here. Iraq is just another mass conflagration of an mis-guided and wrong headed policy that the Obama administration has brought to the table.
Israel’s actions in the Gaza strip and West Bank are prime examples, every three to five years or so the situation “flares up into violence”.
Well Duh! Of course it did – you left your enemies alive at the behest of a bunch of peal clutching talking heads like John Fucking Kerry and Jen Pataki – what do you expect is going to happen? A simultaneous outbreak of Jihadist reflection, contemplation, and a sudden epiphany that translates to a willingness to step into the 21st Century? Because you say so ? Pah-Lease. :em04:
And it’s that Same ol’ Same in Iraq. There might have been a small glimmer of hope in Iraq a few years back- Progress was slow but it was being made. Now? Forget it – it would take an entirely new war, untold blood shed, and a bottomless pit of money we don’t have to even attempt to bring IS to heel up there. Iraq is in my opinion – more than 75% likely to fall and become the next Hard line Islamic Theocracy in the ME. It will be interesting to see Iran’s reaction this no doubt as the factions in Iraq are Sunni and the Shia control Iran. But I digress.
I know, I know…..Monday morning quarterbacking is easy, but from where I sit, I have a better than average view of the goings on over here and this is my own personal take on things.
Obama does in fact own this. Why? Because, one after seeing first hand what his administration is doing, it’s very clear that they do NOT understand the Middle East and two… It’s a simple cause and effect situation.
Bear with me here, because this below point is critical to my argument.
The typical Arab – Persian mindset understands a central concept very clearly. Strength and Force of Arms. It’s bred into them from birth. They respect it. Or do you know of any other culture with a scimitar being so prevalent in everything from their flags, their religion. and right down to the buildings they live in?
If we understand this then the killing in Iraq while abhorrent and “senseless” to us – actually makes complete and total sense. IS is using overwhelming force of arms to subdue their perceived enemies. Archaic – yes. Effective – you betcha’.
Trust me when I say this – There isn’t a political faction in the entire Arabian Gulf right now that isn’t nervously watching what is going on in Iraq, because IS is a force – one to be reckoned with, and the power brokers over here understand that sort of force competently and without ambiguity.
Having said that, I mentioned it being cause and effect and by that I mean this:
When Obama took office, a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) was not yet in place between US and Iraq governments. It was still under negotiation. Meaning that US Personnel had no protections against being tried in some kangaroo court in Baghdad for whatever they felt like. It was an easy kill, (most of us thought) because Al-Malaki wanted upwards of 10,000 US troops to remain in Iraq. That’s the “force” side of the equation.
That “Force” would have translated into ……IS would have certainly thought twice before entering Iraq faced with the specter of 10000 plus US troops armored and armed to the gills with drones and air support to boot. They know they can’t face or hope to win against that sort of overwhelming force. It would have served to stay their hand and keep them on the Syrian side of the border.
What went wrong ……Obama being beholden to his base – refused that amount of “force”. He countered with a ridiculously low number and Al-Malaki balked….thus, they never got the SOFA agreement in place. Now….Obama really had to “End the Iraq war” and end it completely, and he did.
Again, bear with me here, I saw this first hand, by late 2011 the US capabilities in Iraq were mostly gone. It started in mid 2010 and it accelerated through 2011. Where I was? We were given 30 days notice – shut it all down, box everything up and ship it out. And 30 days later we were gone. To say where I was – was a strategic objective would be an understatement, yet we pulled the plug all the same, handed the keys over to the Iraqi’s and more or less said – “see ya”.
Why did it happen like that? Simply put, It was politically toxic to Obama to leave that many US Personnel in Iraq. His base would have crucified him. So, He and the administration pulled out everyone and everything he could and left a huge vacuum – power (or force in this situation) as they say abhors a vacuum and here we are 6 years later with IS running amok in Iraq. But he got to claim he “Ended the Iraq war”. And the sheeple rejoiced!
Those of us with a lot of history over here sort of sit back and shake our heads now, because, in theory…. this whole “Caliphate in Iraq” mess was more than likely – totally avoidable, had Obama and his administration had the foresight to deal with the Iraqi’s in a prudent manner and not politicized this SOFA issue.
As much as I despise John McVain – he had the right of it when he said the US would be in Iraq for the next 100 years. I think that one stance probably helped to cost him the election more so than anything else he might have said, but in the end….he was right. It was the only way to try to ensure a stable Iraq. Overwhelming force on the ground to keep the warring factions in line.
So yes Virginia – Obama Built that. Or perhaps more accurately…Didn’t build what was needed to avoid what is currently happening in Iraq due to misguided political posturing in affairs he was never equipped in the first place to deal with. And that boys and girls, is what happens when you elect a local community agitator to head the most powerful office in the land and prosecute a hot war.