One of the people I most admire online is Richard Fernandez, AKA Wretchard, who is the host of BELMONT CLUB. He is bloody brilliant, and I wish I could write half as well as he. I commend his work THE THREE CONJECTURES to the attention of all; because it is the best explanation of why we needed to at least try George II’s “nation building” effort in the Middle East, and what is the most likely course of events since that initiative has been undermined by the current regime. Here is a link to the old archive copy at the previous incarnation of the site.
For the last few days over there, we have been discussing the Wisconsin attempt by the Democrats to overturn the results of the election, the series of crises in the Middle East as governments crumble, and of late the fiasco [it is a fiasco, but it is too much to detail here] of our evacuation of our nationals from Libya. We have left most of them behind, and damn near did not get those we did get out, out. Those details are being studiously ignored by the MSM. Our fleet is out of position, drastically; and it gives every appearance of being by advance direction of the National Command Authority. You need to go back through all the threads and comments to and including February 20, 2011 to catch it all.
In his thread today, Obama’s almost-hostage crisis, Wretchard offered a comment that illuminates much of what we are seeing, and gives us a hint as to the future. It is going to be a very busy future.
From BELMONT CLUB:
My guess is that the President’s engagement queue is now fully saturated. It’s lagged now, because he has to respond to about a dozen fully blown crises in a time-sliced manner, while the actors in each crisis simply focus on their own slice in near real-time.
1. Wisconsin and the midwest Red states;
8. North Korea;
9. the Federal shutdown of government;
all on the boil and developing fast.
And looming right on the horizon
1. Saudi Arabia;
2. Energy prices;
3. Bankruptcy of California, Illinois, etc
4. Collapse of the Euro;
5. the bond markets;
6. court challenges to Obamacare;
He’s responding in penny-packets to challenges like Pakistan in ways guaranteed to make them bigger. Because what he knows, and perhaps all he knows, is “kick the can down the road”, there is no closure to anything anywhere.
So the engagement queue is likely to grow ever longer, which means the lag will grow to the point where problems proceed essentially unengaged. At this rate, the administration will have the equivalent of a nervous breakdown inside of two months.
If something like a terror attack happens, Obama will essentially be down on the canvas, looking, like Primo Carnera during the Max Baer fight, for the truck that just hit him. He needs to simplify, consolidate, shorten lines. This is what every chess player does when he finds himself in an impossibly tricky situation. But that requires a sense of strategy; to understand where to simplify, what to hold, where to fall back. And like Niall Ferguson said, the problem with President Obama is not only that he doesn’t have a strategy, he doesn’t even know he needs a strategy.
His campaign background may now be working against him, as is his lack of executive experience. He is now in a situation where it is not about talking points, not about looking good behind a podium. It is about actually be able to do something. And so far, it seems like he doesn’t have a clue.
February 25, 2011 – 4:10 pm
Everything IS getting worse, and the cycles are getting faster and faster. His OODA loop is the size of that bloody great wheel thingie in London, and the problems are bullets shooting through the middle of it. Everybody and everything he has to deal with is inside his loop. He is already operating as far outside the Constitution as he can get away with.
I don’t often agree with Newt Gingrich who is a member in good standing of the Political Elite class. But today he gave a speech warning Obama that in effect, if we were a country of laws, he would be impeached. There are plenty of grounds now, just not a Senate that would convict. There is no such thing as a Democrat who would put the law and the Constitution above holding on to, and abusing power. But that condition will not obtain forever. The Wheels of Justice grind slowly, but exceedingly fine.
It is getting to that point that is going to define that very busy future I spoke of.
It is a characteristic of tyrants who have time and opportunity before falling, to flail out trying to destroy not only enemies by any means, but also allies who have obviously failed to prove themselves worthy because of his failure. The case that comes to mind is Hitler’s “Scorched Earth” order of March 19, 1945. Or perhaps Saddam Hussein’s destruction of Kuwait as his forces were ejected. Or perhaps even more apt, the purges in the last year of Stalin’s life, killing vast numbers of innocents.
In his good days [and may whichever Deity is turning the crank of the universe this week have mercy on us these are his good days]; he has attacked and severely damaged the rule of law, the economy, energy production, and the Constitution. I leave it to the Gentle Readers to consider for themselves what Buraq Hussein will do if and when he stares down into the abyss and knows that there is no reason to hold back in attacking those he hates, because it is all over. [I think it is going to involve mass casualties.] And to prepare themselves as best they can mentally and physically.
Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito.
LC Subotai Bahadur, Lord Pao An