Is Iran Going to Close the Strait of Hormuz?

Bitch, PLEASE!

Don’t throw us into that briar patch!

First of all, the Iranian “Navy” couldn’t block a sink drain if it wanted to, mainly because it would cease to exist within the first 48 hours of getting the 5th Fleet’s undivided attention.

Second of all, if there is one thing that could get the “international community” on board with a real blockade of that abysmal pisslamic shit hole of a nation, it would be them suddenly deciding to put a choke hold on the world’s oil supplies. Forget about negotiating about “sanctions” and start thinking “taking over every single one of their ports” instead.

Third, it’s not like the Mad Mullahs don’t depend on the sea lanes being open themselves. Best of luck exporting your goods on camel back through the mountains, you tumblefucked turban-brains.

Fourth, if they think that their bluster won’t be answered by limp dick Ogabe, they ought to think again. He’s got an election coming up, and nothing would please him more than to put on his Rambo suit again and send our troops into battle to boost his ratings.

They really are terminally twitbrained, aren’t they?

Thatisall.

47 comments

  1. 1
    og growls and barks:

    “They really are terminally twitbrained, aren’t they?”

    Islam tends not to attract deep thinkers.
    og recently posted..RedStateRadio blegMy Profile

  2. 2
    angrywebmaster growls and barks:

    I must disagree with your statement that Iran couldn’t block a drain, never mind the straits. They could block the straits of Hormel very easily. We sink enough of their silly little boghammers and eventually they will pile so high that the wreckage will form a barrier reef…of sorts.
    :em05:
    angrywebmaster recently posted..Gaia tells OWS ENOUGH!My Profile

  3. 3
    angrywebmaster growls and barks:

    og @ #:
    Islam tends not to attract deep thinkers.

    I fixed your comment for you.
    :em01:
    angrywebmaster recently posted..Gaia tells OWS ENOUGH!My Profile

  4. 4
    Orion growls and barks:

    I take a back seat to no one in my admiration for the US Navy, but you greatly underestimate the Iranian Navy’s capabilities. They have a lot of fast attack craft that can fire a lot of ASM’s – cheap, stupid little boats that we could sink by the dozen. And they have many dozens. They have mines. They have diesel submarines – very quiet and very difficult to detect in the littoral seas where they’d be operating. One of those suckers sitting on the bottom and waiting can put a dent in your whole day.

    They have shore artillery and shore based ASM’s by the hundred.

    Yes, they would be defeated. No question. At what cost? I would guess if we weren’t very, very careful, we’d lose a couple destroyers, several frigates, and unfortunately, a carrier. Especially if someone wanted to order the 5th to make a show of force crossing of the Straits. You know, someone way up at the top. Who has a history of making dumb decisions.

    Orion

  5. 5
    0007 growls and barks:

    All they have to do is sink one of our carriers in the channel there and game over.

  6. 6
    LC Proud Infidel growls and barks:

    FUCKIN’ A, what would be wrong with hauling out some tactical nukes and using them? Just turn a few parts of that pisslamic fleabag hellhole into glow-in-the-dark sheets of glass and then we’ll see just how they want to act!!

  7. 7
    LC Darth Scoundrel growls and barks:

    A carrier is harder to put down than you think. We learned a lot about damage control courtesy of the Japanese way back yonder in the early 40s. Yeah, it will go down, but it won’t go down easy.
    And they tried that whole “blocking the straights” thing in 88. Didn’t work too well for them. Of course we had a guy in the Oval Office that had a sack full back then, too.
    LC Darth Scoundrel recently posted..The New ToyMy Profile

  8. 8
    Secondmouse growls and barks:

    Ahmadinnerjacket and the rest of the pedophiles on the Guardian Council know that it would take us less than one short winter day to turn Iran into 600,000 square miles of warm glass. Pretty good idea, actually. Cut down on the dust storms in the area and the glow would be an aid to navigation in the region for generations…hmmm.

    This is all being done for regional effect. Iran is working on their street cred, standing up to the bad ol’ Great Satan. They won’t go too far, or they risk damaging the illusion of power they are working so hard to create if they give us an excuse to transform a portion of their military manhood into pink mist.

    Their success at bullying the region is our failure, and now with our capitulation in Iraq and our spineless civilian leadership, will only grow worse.

    Might be good if the 5th experienced an ‘accidental engagement’ that annihilated something Iranian, just to keep those bastards guessing.

  9. 9
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    I seriously doubt that Iran would follow through with any of the rhetoric they are spouting. It is mainly directed for the benefit of the audience of their own people than ours.

    Besides, they already won, just by making the threat. They caused us to react, and it drives the price of oil up. Ca-ching!
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Brighter Than The Sun ~ Colbie CaillatMy Profile

  10. 10
    LC Jackboot IC/A growls and barks:

    Orion says:

    very quiet and very difficult to detect in the littoral seas where they’d be operating.

    Don’t be discounting the focus of our counter-submarine abilities. The Virginia class attack boats are designed from the keel up to easily operate in littoral waters against the SSK diesel-electrics and the newer variants. Also, our ASW capabilities have been focused on this as well. The Navy has known for quite awhile that future conflicts might very well take place against countries with shallow water navies. While purportedly a fiction novel, Tom Clancy’s “SSN” (not the damn game) gives a LOT of insight into our capabilities for this type of conflict. The other factor that is a HUGE disadvantage for the Iranians, is their lack of an air force designed to operate in a naval support role. Our airpower capabilities would make for a wholesale slaughter of their small gunboats. The US is the world leader in stand-off weapons capabilities and we wouldn’t have to risk capital ships operating in confined waters. We could easily sit in the IO and nail those fuckers all day long. Not saying it would be a cakewalk, but definitely quite a bit less tough than you perhaps imagine.

    Just sayin….
    LC Jackboot IC/A recently posted..Our most precious bloodMy Profile

  11. 11
    LC BOATS growls and barks:

    I don’t believe the Navy of my day (65-69) would have had much of a problem clearing the area long before approach. Even back then our navel air power was incredible. I was in an attack squadron attached to the ( Connie boat ) in 68 so I know of what I say. Flight deck duty.

  12. 12
    Emperor Misha I growls and barks:

    Orion @ #:

    Jackboot, that darling old squid, already addressed the sub issue better than I ever could and, too, the fact that there’s nothing that says we even have to get close enough for them to hit us in order for us to annihilate them.

    But… I hadn’t thought of this thing that you brought up:

    Especially if someone wanted to order the 5th to make a show of force crossing of the Straits. You know, someone way up at the top. Who has a history of making dumb decisions.

    I just made the error of leaving the Idiot Factor out of my analysis, because you’re obviously right. That’s exactly the kind of bravado-fueled bullshit order that Ogabe’s under-educated, narcissist arse might issue.

    One can only hope that the dear Navy would make a textbook example of “fucking up orders”, then.
    Emperor Misha I recently posted..Is Iran Going to Close the Strait of Hormuz?My Profile

  13. 13
    Igor, Imperial Booby growls and barks:

    LC Jackboot IC/A @ #10:
    I’m not an expert on submarine warfare, and I don’t play a skipper on t.v. However, being well-versed in mechanical and electrical engineering, and having read a lot and also having several “silent service” people I know, their noisy, inefficient, slow WWII-era subs are sitting ducks. Let me point out a few problems with taking up a diesel boat against a modern Navy, like the one we still have.
    1) MADs -whether you are moving or sitting still, an ASW helo will make a few passes, nail your position, then nail YOU with a depth torp. So, you can’t sit there or move either. If you sit there, we’re MAD about you. If you move, we can hear you from 300 miles away. The’ve gotta surface sometime to recharge their batteries, y’know, and those diesels broadcast noise like a rock band. Game over.

    2) All those little bitty ships out there with MANPADs or better? Remember, WE own the skies. If it moves, we shoot it until it stops moving or disappears. Remember all those lasers the Navy and Army have been playing with lately? Makes a dandy anti-ship defense. I won’t go into details.

    3) as you said, Jackboot, we can sit there all day and night long and play whack-a-Persian with our lighter stuff, while we Tomahawk the crap outta their shore facilities, and there’s not d**n-all they can do. Like you said, that’s why we have standoff weapons. And littoral ships, now.

    Shoot, just for grins and giggles break out the Missouri (currently in Pearl Harbor), and have some fun with BIG guns! Yeah, we’ll lose a few soldiers/sailors/airmen, but it will be cheap in the long run. Wish I was an RPV pilot right about now…

    Heh.

  14. 14
    LC hilljohnny growls and barks:

    the best way to respond would be to take off the restrictions and taxes that are choking U.S. production and approve the Canada- U.S. pipeline.

  15. 15
    Orion growls and barks:

    @All! :D

    Too true – We’ve spent a lot of time practicing against littoral threats because they are insanely difficult. Particularly if they’re not moving, on the bottom of the ocean. ASW aircraft are vulnerable to SAM, AAA, and fighters. Hard to get a good MAD pass when you’re executing evasive maneuvers.

    The Navy could annihilate the Iranian defenses if they were given the clearance and the free-hand to do so. And if the Iranians don’t have any surprises of their own. ALWAYS factor in that the bad guys get lucky every now and again too, and sometimes have a very good plan for their own back yard. And a MUCH shorter logistical tail.

    Sanctions would remove any incentive for the Iranians NOT to block the strait – they’re not cutting off their lifeline, it’s already been cut. The same sort of thing helped push Japan to attack Pearl Harbor, if you’ll recall.

    I’ve got a lot of friends in the Navy – I may be Army, but I can bet that given Iran’s forces I could bring down a Carrier+ if they attempted to force the straits without positively annihilating anything and everything that might be threatening within about 100 miles of those waters. Aegis and the SM2/SM3 combo is a powerful system, but it can be swamped, particularly in narrow waters where you can truck in a ECM and a few hundred Silkworms and other ASM’s, launch them and leave. Ask our Gulf War pilots how easy it is to find a mobile IRBM launcher, much less a mobile ASM launcher. Mines are easy to place from speedboats, or submarines, or pre-planting on the sea floor, and a nightmare to detect. And if you’re moving slow behind your minesweepers, you’re extending your vulnerability to everything else.

    A simultaneous attack by Hundreds of fast moving small boats, hovercraft, armed drones, shore launched artillery and missiles and dozens of diesel subs plus mines and aircraft would be a very challenging tactical problem, especially with a coordinated strike on regional bases. They don’t CARE what they lose. If they lost every Soldier, Sailor, and Airman they had but could get solid video of burning US bases and even ONE sinking US ship, with a captured pilot or three, they would be seen as the victors. Hell, if they even DAMAGED a carrier, they’d call it a ‘win’. USS Stark or USS Samuel B Roberts, anyone?

    Their air assets would last about as long as the Iraqi Air Force.

    And don’t think we wouldn’t see a reprise of the Tanker War. All they need to do is cause enough instability in the route to cause oil prices to skyrocket and watch our shaky economies collapse (Thank you, again, Democrats). Which might force the USN to try that risky passage of the straits after an ‘embattled President’ looking to burnish his tough-guy cred before an election orders them to enforce the freedom of the seas.

    The only advice I’d have to the 5th Fleet is: “Don’t get cocky!” Yes, they can win. But they need to win without loss – ANY loss would cause our current leadership to run like a scalded rabbit. Like the Defeatocrats always do.

    Maybe we’ll get lucky and the Israelis will execute the decapitation strike on the Iranian government I thought about…We’d be in an excellent position to help.

    Orion

  16. 16
    tweell growls and barks:

    DJ Allyn has a point – Iran threatens the Great Satan and so talks the price of oil up while using the foreign terror to keep their people under control – win/win for them, as long as they don’t have to back it up.
    I’m not that worried about the pure military aspect. Iran has purchased more of Russia and China’s old junk, true, but remember Muslim maintenance skills are still based on ‘if Allah wills’. Their demonstrations of military might (complete with badly photoshopped pictures to hide the fact that 1 out of 4 missiles didn’t even launch) have reinforced, rather than eroded that attitude. Stupid orders, on the other hand, are amazingly dangerous. Let’s not also forget that China may want to go for Taiwan while we’re occupied in the Strait.

  17. 17
    LC Light29ID growls and barks:

    These ass reaming goat fuckers don’t think like the Russians did during the Cold War. They weren’t suicidal. Arminifuckerdude wants a war so he can throw missiles at Israel, fuck up the world with oil shortages and hasten the arrival of the 12th Goat Fucking Imam.

    Remember these bastards sent children running through the Iraqi minefields to clear them for the Republican Guard during the Iran-Iraq war. The channel for tankers is only four miles wide and we all saw what an Exocet will do to a ship during the Falklands. Don’t underestimate the insanity of these loony tunes. Hitler didn’t give a shit about his own people in the end and neither do they.

    And with the First Kenyon Klingon Fucker in charge they’ll be sitting around for three months with their thumbs up their asses trying to figure out what to do.

  18. 18
    Emperor Misha I growls and barks:

    LC Light29ID says:

    These ass reaming goat fuckers don’t think like the Russians did during the Cold War. They weren’t suicidal. Arminifuckerdude wants a war so he can throw missiles at Israel, fuck up the world with oil shortages and hasten the arrival of the 12th Goat Fucking Imam.

    Exactly. That’s been my line of thinking too ever since Day One.

    Listen, let’s not fool ourselves: Ahmadinnerjacket and the Mad Mullahs want a conflict, no matter what, so it is going to happen, no matter what. There is no “let’s just wait and see and then nothing is going to happen” option.

    Our choices at this point are limited to whether the conflict is going to be at a time and place of our choosing or theirs.

    I vote for the former. If we’re going to have a fight, and we are, then we might as well pick the time and place and get inside their OODA loop.
    Emperor Misha I recently posted..Marines… Don’t Fuck With Them!My Profile

  19. 19
    LC Xystus growls and barks:

    Orion:

    ANY loss would cause our current leadership to run like a scalded rabbit. Like the Defeatocrats always do.

    Then the ‘Crats can more easily be defeated. If Sir Robbin’ bravely runs away, he presumably leaves his hopes sunk somewhere near the Gulf.

  20. 20
    Elephant Man growls and barks:

    I don’t think Obama would be dumb enough to order a carrier group to transit the Straight of Hormuz for the simple fact that if the Iranians did get lucky, he’d be forced into a full blown war with Iran.

    If he dithered or backed down, his reelection chances would shrink to zero and his ego wouldn’t allow that.

    He would most likely order some “expendable” frigates or destroyers for the Iranians to take potshots at if they were so inclined and if one or two were damaged or sunk, the losses would be “acceptable” and in his mind not require an overwhelming response.

    He’d most likely tell the Navy to take “appropriate” measures to keep the strait open and keep his hands off.

    That way, if something went wrong, he could blame it on the Navy and if the Iranians backed down or got smacked around, he could take full credit.

    Remember, in Obama’s mind, reelection is paramount and will override all his other inclinations.

    However, if he manages to get reelected, then all bets are off.

    Side note: To any frigate or destroyer sailors that are reading this, I’m not saying you or your ships are expendable or your loss would be acceptable, hence the sarcasm tags. I know you guys and gals comprise The Real Navy. :grin:

  21. 21

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen @ #:

    The price spike in oil was very temporary. It’s pretty much stable and falling a bit now that the world realizes Iran is just bloviating, and our supplies of crude are actually higher than anticipated.

    Brent oil fell below $107 a barrel on Friday, pressured by doubts that Iran will disrupt supply and by an expected drop in European demand for crude due to refinery outages, although the benchmark was still on track to post a 13 percent gain for 2011.

    Ahmadinnerjacket and his band of mad mullahs merely wanted to put forth the illusion that they have big brass balls instead of the neuticles they’re sporting.
    LC Nicki the Resident Misanthropic Bitch recently posted..Your move, Iranian fuckwads!My Profile

  22. 22
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Elephant Man says:

    Remember, in Obama’s mind, reelection is paramount and will override all his other inclinations.

    You’ve just described everyone who ever thought of running for or holding an office. They are all ego-driven, and will think first of what this means to either their chances of election / re-election, or what their position will be in history. Everything else will come second to that.

    For the most part, Obama hasn’t been afraid to exercise his military tools at hand. I am also sure that Obama will defer to whatever his military advisers come up with in any kind of response — and probably already has contingencies in place should they ever be needed, based on what his advisers have told him.

    Elephant Man says:

    I don’t think Obama would be dumb enough to order a carrier group to transit the Straight of Hormuz for the simple fact that if the Iranians did get lucky, he’d be forced into a full blown war with Iran.

    This makes the assumption that a president — ANY president — is making those kinds of decisions without having several plans drawn up for him by the military experts for him to choose from. I think that Johnson was the last president who involved himself in the day-to-day military operations in Vietnam. Since then, presidents rely on their military to draft several sets of plans with projected outcomes for a president to choose from. Do you see any scenario where a military adviser going to recommend a carrier group to transit the Strait during a threat like this? To be trapped inside should Iran actually carries out their threat?

    Nobody is going to be THAT stupid.

    Besides, we don’t have to be anywhere near the place to take out any such blockade. While Iran’s navy chief Habibollah Sayyari says that “Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran’s armed forces is really easy … or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water,” it would be just as easy as spilling that glass of water for us to UNblock the Strait.
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Deacon Blues ~ Steely DanMy Profile

  23. 23
    LC Ogrrre growls and barks:

    If they do close the Straits of Hormuz, they will face no repercussions from President Pussy. The Dumbasscrats and the Europussies should be thankful that I am not CINC US. I should like very much to tell the Iranian UN ambassador that if even on missile or gun is fired at a non-Iranian flagged ship, even by “accident”, that the only think Amadinnerjacket will be president of will be a glass parking lot. And, just to make sure they know I’m not kidding or bluffing, I’d send a Spirit to drop a load of ordnance on the city of Qom.

  24. 24
    LC Proud Infidel growls and barks:

    Just think about how GOOD America had it when we were the World’s #1 oil producer and exporter, we have the resources to do it again, but the pols are too concerned about sucking up to the greenpiss potheads.

    All we have to do is tap the resources we already have, say FUCK THE EPA commies, then let the petrochemical companies expand their current refineries, and build a few more. Next thing we know, we could give Venezuela and the M.E. the bird, and tell them we’ll buy their shit at whatever price WE want to!
    I remember my Senior year in High School, 1986, when we had a POTUS with class, integrity, and a pair of balls, he told everyone we were going to “open the valve”, and I remember seing regular gas going for around 65 cents a gallon that summer.

    How ’bout this campaign slogan:

    FREE THE HYDROCARBONS, DRILL HERE, DRILL NOW!
    Because America runs better on American oil. :em01:

  25. 25
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    LC Proud Infidel says:

    Just think about how GOOD America had it when we were the World’s #1 oil producer and exporter,

    When exactly was that?
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Solid Potato Salad – The Ross SistersMy Profile

  26. 26
    Elephant Man growls and barks:

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen @ #:

    I’d say for at least the first half of the 20th century. Middle East oil production didn’t surge upward until the 1950s.

    The United States produced most of the oil used by the Allies in WW2

    Even today the United States ranks third in oil production with Saudi Arabia second and Russia being first.

    I was surprised that the U.S ranked third given the restrictions on domestic oil production.

  27. 27
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Elephant Man says:

    Even today the United States ranks third in oil production with Saudi Arabia second and Russia being first.

    There is also more oil that is easier to get at in Saudi Arabia and Russia

    Elephant Man says:

    I was surprised that the U.S ranked third given the restrictions on domestic oil production.

    Now, for the FIRST time, oil and refined gas lists the top of our exports. So much for that meme of drilling here and using it here. It is also an indication that because of higher fuel standards, our demand for fossil fuel is decreasing.

    If anyone still thinks that this Keystone XL pipeline is going to magically supply the US with cheaper oil and gas, they really haven’t been paying attention. The ONLY reason why that pipeline is currently heading South to the Gulf of Mexico is because British Columbia wouldn’t allow it to run through their province. Nope, the refined fuel from that oil is headed to South America, Europe and China. (not necessarily in that order)

    This pipeline deliberately bypasses the PADD II midwest refineries because according to TransCanada, PADD II refineries “are currently oversupplied, resulting in price discounting for Canadian heavy crude oil.” (note that they didn’t say “over-capacity”, they said “oversupplied”. The first would protect the price, the second makes the value of their oil cheaper and that is what they are trying to overcome by running it down to PADD III in Texas. They can get more money tax free by piping it down there for refining and shipping it out overseas.

    What would this pipeline do for the price of fuel in the mid-west? Probably raise the price per gallon by another 20 cents.
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Solid Potato Salad – The Ross SistersMy Profile

  28. 28
    LC Proud Infidel growls and barks:

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen @ #:
    Sez who? Mother Earth Snooze? Greenpiss?
    B. Hussein Øbama & co, are holding this up in order to curry favor with the potheaded welfare-leech treehugging fleabags, nothing more, nothing less, and it’ll cost him and his party in the next election, I sincerely hope it costs them dearly! Pipelines are a safe way for products to move through the USA, thousands of petroleum pipelines already cross the USA, and they safely transport millions of gallons of product every day, millions of cubic feet in the case of gas pipelines. Look at the Alaska pipeline, something the eco-kooks said would be an environmental catastrophe decades ago, and none of that has happened. I once was a dumbass, gullible college stoount that believed the eco-kook propaganda. After an enlistment in the Army and working a few years in the HAZMAT and cleanup industry, I have seen just how full of shit the eco-kooks really are, and their crap is one of the major reasons we’re in the economic mess we are right now!

  29. 29
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    LC Proud Infidel says:

    Sez who? Mother Earth Snooze? Greenpiss?

    Perhaps you should read TransCanada’s own permit documentation. It’s where I found it, and it is probably a good place for you to start also.

    LC Proud Infidel says:

    Pipelines are a safe way for products to move through the USA, thousands of petroleum pipelines already cross the USA, and they safely transport millions of gallons of product every day, millions of cubic feet in the case of gas pipelines.

    Sure, pipelines are probably the BEST way to transport petroleum, but they aren’t without some serious incidents. On June 2, 2011, 42,000 gallons of oil into Montana’s Yellowstone river. In the summer of 2010, 840,000 gallon tar sands pipeline spill into Michigan’s Kalamazoo River. There were 12 spills along TransCanada’s Keystone pipeline in its first 12 months of operation. If your argument is that compared to the millions of gallons of oil that gets transported through pipelines in this country, a few spills of a hundred thousand gallons here and three quarters of a million gallons there is just a tiny percentage of spillage, then you have a point. But a million gallon spill isn’t small potatoes.

    The problem is people like you want to simply bypass any scrutiny on this. You don’t want anyone to look at the possible impact these things might have on the environment, the economy, or even the health and well being of people in the area. You act as if there is some fucking emergency that requires to get this thing built — EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT GIVE YOU ONE DROP OF FUEL. That shit’s getting refined in Texas, and put immediately on a ship bound for South America, Europe, and China. WE are exporting oil and fuel. This is a fact. We are pumping it out of our ground and sending it overseas. Pumping more oil here is NOT going to lower our prices at the pump by one copper penny, no matter how romantic it sounds to you about not relying on foreign oil.

    Where is your patriotism when it comes to the American worker? Why aren’t you shaking your fist and demanding that the things you buy aren’t made right here in the US by American workers?
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Solid Potato Salad – The Ross SistersMy Profile

  30. 30
    bruce growls and barks:

    the jews are going to nuke iran.

  31. 31
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    bruce says:

    the jews are going to nuke iran

    It will probably be the last thing they do then. They will lose any and all support they have now if they employ a first strike with nuclear weapons. China isn’t going to sit back and let that happen.
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Solid Potato Salad – The Ross SistersMy Profile

  32. 32
    Emperor Misha I growls and barks:

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen says:

    It will probably be the last thing they do then. They will lose any and all support they have now if they employ a first strike with nuclear weapons.

    If it ends up being the only way they can avoid being the target of the Mullah’s nukes, then they certainly have my full support.

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen says:

    China isn’t going to sit back and let that happen.

    I somehow doubt that the Chicoms are going to shove a pin into the bubble their Potemkin economy floats on over a bunch of irradiated pisslamist fanatics.
    Emperor Misha I recently posted..2011…The Year When The Stupid Stupefied.My Profile

  33. 33
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Emperor Misha I says:

    If it ends up being the only way they can avoid being the target of the Mullah’s nukes, then they certainly have my full support

    Again, we are talking FIRST strike use of nuclear weapons. I’m thinking that your support will be infinitesimal in comparison to the other 8 billion people on this planet.

    Conventional attacks? Now that is a different story altogether. It is only when you start talking about coming out of the box making an attack with a nuclear weapon is when you lose all support for that kind of action. It doesn’t matter who you are or what your reasoning is. If you throw the first blow and it is nuclear, kiss your ass goodbye.

    It would also be different if Iran lobbed a nuclear attack against Israel… The proper response would be nuclear.

    Emperor Misha I says:

    I somehow doubt that the Chicoms are going to shove a pin into the bubble their Potemkin economy floats on over a bunch of irradiated pisslamist fanatics.

    I dunno, China has its eyes focused on that oil right now…
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen recently posted..Solid Potato Salad – The Ross SistersMy Profile

  34. 34
    Emperor Misha I growls and barks:

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen says:

    It would also be different if Iran lobbed a nuclear attack against Israel… The proper response would be nuclear.

    It would also be too late. I don’t think the “propriety” of waiting for your own extermination before you do anything to avoid it would matter much to the dead people of Israel, it certainly wouldn’t matter one little bit to me.

    The Iranians painted themselves into that particular corner, and if they get blown to dust, they’ll find no sympathy here. As to the “other 8 billion people on this planet”, I don’t recall the last time I gave a good shit about their pig-ignorant opinions about anything whatsoever.

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen says:

    I dunno, China has its eyes focused on that oil right now…

    Then perhaps it would behoove the Chicoms to start thinking about the inevitable ramifications of having a bunch of apocalyptic, religious fanatics sitting smack dab in the middle of all of that oil with their simian paws on a nuclear trigger.

    Because if they pull that trigger, and they will if they get their grimy, shit-encrusted digits on it, they’ve stated so numerous times themselves, then nobody will be getting any oil from that region for a long, long time.
    Emperor Misha I recently posted..2011…The Year When The Stupid Stupefied.My Profile

  35. 35
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Emperor Misha I says:

    It would also be too late. I don’t think the “propriety” of waiting for your own extermination before you do anything to avoid it would matter much to the dead people of Israel, it certainly wouldn’t matter one little bit to me.

    Again, it is about a unilateral first strike using nuclear weapons against a nation that HASN’T struck first. The mere talk or even the mere development of a nuclear program isn’t overt enough to justify a unilateral NUCLEAR first strike. There isn’t a nation on earth (including ours) that would approve of that.

    There is a reason why Israel hasn’t used a nuclear weapon like this before — even THEY know they wouldn’t have the high ground on this.

    Like I said, a conventional first strike is an entirely different thing. I would expect that to be the case if Israel finally decides that they need to do something about Iran — unilaterally or not. But the idea of them coming out of the box with a nuclear strike? Only in your wet dreams.

    Besides, strategically, it would be a colossal mistake on Israel’s part. They would not have the high ground on this, not when they could accomplish the same thing with conventional weapons.
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  36. 36
    the botnet growls and barks:

    Pumping more oil here is NOT going to lower our prices at the pump by one copper penny, no matter how romantic it sounds to you about not relying on foreign oil.

    Interesting the way in some people’s minds the law of supply and demand doesn’t pertain to petroleum. Seems to me that more oil (aka: “supply”) will lower the price.

    I don’t have the greatest memory, but I can tell you that back in July 2008 when teh Evil Boooooosh deep-sixed the executive order banning offshore drilling, in two days the price for a barrel of oil dropped from $145 to $134. And this was just at the mere hint that the supply would increase.

    Now imagine if we did something to actually increase supply, or make the real production of petroleum endproducts cheaper…

    But of course, since supply and demand doesn’t pertain to petroleum, everything I just said is complete and utter bullshit, right?
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  37. 37
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    the botnet says:

    Interesting the way in some people’s minds the law of supply and demand doesn’t pertain to petroleum. Seems to me that more oil (aka: “supply”) will lower the price.

    Good grief, you can drop the pretense of our oil prices being controlled by that old “supply and demand” saw. Even the blind and mentally feeble know now that isn’t what controls the price of oil these days.

    There is PLENTY of oil already pumped out of the ground. The thing is when the oil companies and the suppliers sit on it and wait for speculators to jack the price up based on some “threat” or whimsy before they release it to market, the idea that “supply and demand” is being manipulated to suit the profit margin.

    If you think it is otherwise, you are probably pretty gullible.

    the botnet says:

    I don’t have the greatest memory, but I can tell you that back in July 2008 when teh Evil Boooooosh deep-sixed the executive order banning offshore drilling, in two days the price for a barrel of oil dropped from $145 to $134. And this was just at the mere hint that the supply would increase.

    Which has absolutely NOTHING to do with supply, does it? You kinda made my point. It is speculation — a fiction — that determines pricing, NOT your precious supply and demand myth. Besides, try to wrap your brain around this — Bush taking away the ban on offshore drilling doesn’t immediately put oil on the market, does it? Nor does drilling in ANWAR or any other place you want to open up. It doesn’t even mean that the oil companies are going to actually DRILL in any of those spots. All it does is issue leases for the oil companies to tie up those fields in order to keep control over how much oil they will allow to be on the market.

    the botnet says:

    Now imagine if we did something to actually increase supply, or make the real production of petroleum endproducts cheaper…

    First off, the cost of producing a barrel of oil has not risen substantially in twenty years. It is still roughly $10 a barrel. The “cost” is what the speculators put on the “price” per barrel.

    Secondly, there is a HUGE supply of oil already out of the ground. But if it isn’t being made available for sale…

    Wake up, oil pricing and supply is manipulated.
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  38. 38
    Elephant Man growls and barks:

    There is also more oil that is easier to get at in Saudi Arabia and Russia

    Maybe that’s why the U.S. is third and not first in oil production. As an aside, the U.S. was second in 2009 and 2001

    Now for the FIRST time, oil and refined gas leads the top of our exports

    That statement is a bit misleading.

    It should read “Now for the first time in at least 21 years oil and refined gas leads the top of our exports.” which would indicate that the U.S. has led the world in production and export in the past.

    Just answering your question to Proud Infidel when you dismissively asked “When exactly was that?” when he stated “Just think about how GOOD America had it when we were the World’s #1 oil producer and exporter”.

  39. 39
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Elephant Man says:

    It should read “Now for the first time in at least 21 years oil and refined gas leads the top of our exports.” which would indicate that the U.S. has led the world in production and export in the past.

    I don’t think that was the point of the article. What it said was the REFINED GAS leads the top product being exported out of this country. Not widgets or food. I would have argued that JOBS were the number one export in this country, but apparently, more oil than jobs left this year.

    MY point is, in order for us to be exporting refined gas, it MUST mean that we have an over abundance of the product to export. That kind of blows a huge hole in that “supply and demand” meme as well as that other meme about pumping more here to get us off of foreign oil.

    Add that Keystone XL pipeline down to the Gulf, and even MORE refined gas will leave this country.

    Elephant Man says:

    Just think about how GOOD America had it when we were the World’s #1 oil producer and exporter”.

    You mean back when we actually had good paying jobs and we were manufacturing goods that were exported OUT of this country instead of the other way around? Back before the Banksters weren’t involved in the oil speculation business?

    The cost per barrel hasn’t really gone up in adjusted dollars for decades. It is still around $10 per barrel, which accounted for roughly one-third the price of a barrel until the speculation went wild and vastly inflated the price.
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  40. 40
    LC TerribleTroy growls and barks:

    If the speculators control the prices, and the mere mention of drilling in the past has had a immediate impact on the speculators translating to a immediate decrease in barrel price, explain to me again why opening more of our resources wont have any impact on prices?

  41. 41
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    LC TerribleTroy says:

    explain to me again why opening more of our resources wont have any impact on prices?

    You can “open” them all you want. It doesn’t mean that there will be any drilling on them any time soon. Take a look at the thousands of other leases that the oil companies have snapped up. There is money to be made in SITTING on them because if they aren’t drilling them, nobody else is going to be either.

    I say open them ALL up. But at the same time, tell them if they are going to buy up a lease, then they have a certain time limit to drill on them or the lease is invalidated and it goes to someone else for free. I’ll bet you will see a lot more drilling going on.

    At the same time, shit can the idea that we are going to EXPORT any refined gas from this country. if it is refined here, it stays here. Period.

    It isn’t going to happen because the money to be made is not in the delivery of the product, it is in the control of the product. Otherwise gas would be back down to $2.00 a gallon again including all of the taxes.
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  42. 42
    Elephant Man growls and barks:

    The cost per barrel hasn’t really gone up in adjusted dollars for decades. It is still around $10 per barrel, which accounted for roughly one-third the price of a barrel until the speculation went wild and vastly inflated the price.

    You have a point.

    While the oil companies have always made an effort to manipulate the price of their product, The problem has spiraled out of control ever since investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan got into the oil business when Congress deregulated the futures market in 2000.

    It isn’t going to happen because the money to be made is not in the delivery of the product, it is in the control of the product. Otherwise gas would be back down to $2.00 a gallon again including all of the taxes.

    Investment banks control a surprising amount of pipelines, refineries and storage facilities that they operate through subsidiaries. They’d be happy to sit on the oil and gas or export it until they can release it domestically at what they deem, a “suitable price”.

  43. 43
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Elephant Man says:

    While the oil companies have always made an effort to manipulate the price of their product, The problem has spiraled out of control ever since investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan got into the oil business when Congress deregulated the futures market in 2000.

    That is correct.

    It used to be that the only people buying futures in fuel were those industries who actually USED the fuel. Airlines, trucking companies etc. But since Congress deregulated the futures market, we now have investment banks using the futures market as a casino.

    But it isn’t just investment banks. Part of that deregulation included the ability for just about anything to become an “investment bank” and didn’t require any cash to be put up front. Now we have actual oil companies who can speculate on their own supply — and manipulate that supply to drive their prices up

    Don’t get the impression that I am against drilling for oil. I am not. My argument all along has been that simply drilling for more oil isn’t going to change its pricing or availability unless we first deal with the TRUE cause of both.

    It isn’t “supply and demand” in the sense that there isn’t enough access to it. It is that the supply is being purposely manipulated in order to drive the price up as far as it can go and still get people to buy it.

    There is no way in hell that oil — which is cheaper to produce than milk or beer, should demand a 1000 percent profit, with most of that profit going to some investment bank that merely placed a bet using no actual money. I am reminded of the Mafia who insisted on having their “cut” or “vig” on ordinary businesses.

    I am also NOT against capitalism or the concept of people making money. What I AM against is unregulated capitalism and people taking advantage of a system in order to squeeze every last dime and nickel they can while letting everything else around them wither and die.
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  44. 44
    Notorious Gladiator growls and barks:

    Before you write the Iranian Navy off….

    Iranian Navy Roster 12-30-11

    21 Submarines Aged 1992-2011
    3 Frigates Aged 1970-1972
    3 Corvettes vintage 1963
    10 Missile boats aged 1994-1996
    14 Large Missile Boats 10 aged 1977-1981 4 aged 2003-2008
    83 Inshore PT Boats
    274 Fast attack boats.

    just sayin

  45. 45
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Notorious Gladiator @ #44:

    Who needs a navy for a blockade? All they need to do is lob missiles and sink anything that attempts to pass through the Strait. And if there is one thing Iraq has — it’s missiles.

    But I don’t see a blockade happening. They would do more damage to themselves over time than they would against anyone else. It is about as empty a threat as Kim Jong duhhhh threatening that the South will pay for their “hideous crimes” during their cry-fest.

    It is all saber-rattling and chest beating.
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  46. 46

    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen says:

    Who needs a navy for a blockade? All they need to do is lob missiles and sink anything that attempts to pass through the Strait. And if there is one thing Iraq has — it’s missiles.

    they also have these

    I don’t underestimate their capability to do some damage, against supercavitating torpedoes or huge swarms of explosive laden fast boats we’d be pretty hard pressed.

  47. 47
    DJ Allyn, Private Citizen growls and barks:

    Jaybear, Colonel of Imperial Ancient Artillery @ #46:

    Jay, I think that the point is, the Iranians might spout a lot of rhetoric, but talk’s cheap. They really have no interest in creating a battle that they know they cannot win. Historically, this is the prelude to trying to get some face time at more talks. The tough talk is more for their citizen audience than the international audience.

    Could Iran do damage? Sure, anyone can do damage. But in this case they’d be doing more damage to themselves than to anyone else. It would be the one thing that would cause their own people to rise up and depose the regime. But if we attack them first? All that will do is cause a VERY proud and nationalistic people to rally behind their government — even when that government is hated.
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