I know that I am a wordy bastard. And after I tried to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and all Hell broke loose [much to my surprise, I was actually NOT trying to stir shit for a change] I thought I would back off for a while.
But there are things that should be noted. His Majesty mentioned that bombing attempt on Christmas Day, and alluded to the incompetence of the regime, both in notifying in Buraq and the aftermath when Napolitano claimed that the fact that all the bureaucratic t’s were crossed and i’s dotted after the detonator failed proved that “the system” for dealing with terrorism was “working smoothly”.
But there was what gives every appearance of another attempt yesterday. Same flight from Amsterdam to Detroit, another Nigerian, and this time things are quiet, too quiet. Other than His Majesty, there has been no mention of either bombing attempt on the Rott.
Being a wordy bastard, I have been discussing it elsewhere, and there have been multiple threads over at BELMONT CLUB where I weighed in. The latest was dissecting the excuse being offered by Leftists that the reason that Buraq has not deigned to publicly react or respond to the bombing attempt is because to do so would lend dignity and weight to those conducting the attempted bombing. And that for Buraq to deny them that affirmation and dignity is the most damaging response possible.
I have heard of similar reasoning by Emperors in Chinese history. And in every case, it was just before the dynasty was overthrown, usually by barbarians.
In any case, here in slightly modified form, are some of my ponderings on the sudden silence after the second apparent bombing attempt.
Looking for “dogs not barking”. It is the old investigating technique of finding anomalies in conduct and trying to determine the “why?” behind them.
Look at the Christmas bombing attempt. Within a hour, we had more information than the president had [since they did not bother to disturb his golf game until 3 hours after it happened.]. We had a name. We had a rough outline of the incident, including that passengers defended themselves and the country [although the hero is a Dutchman who our media promptly named and pictured for the benefit of Jihadi's in the Netherlands]. We had eyewitness accounts. We had eyewitness reports [of unauthenticated credibility, but we were getting information] of anomalies in behavior and lapses in security procedure in the Netherlands that may have included the arrest of an accomplice. We had passengers talking to the news media. We knew shortly afterwards that the would-be bomber was on a list of terrorist affiliated persons. That he had bought his one way ticket with cash at the last minute [that is one of the major flags that should get you turned inside out by security personnel] and did not have any luggage for a multi-continental trip [that is another major flag calling for turning the suspect into a Klein Bottle under the rules we are playing by]. We soon knew that he openly claimed Al Quada affiliation, training in Yemen and acquisition of the device there. And that he claimed that there were multiple others en route using the same method.
We also knew the next day that the Chef d’Cuisine for this airborne serving of Hangtown Fries had secreted himself in the plane’s head for a prolonged period and apparently had …. extracted … at least part of the hypergolic mixture from waterproofed packaging that was, as we said in the business, “keistered” for transport.
Two days later, there is another very similar incident on the same flight, same route. The subject of interest is also a Nigerian. He is known to have secreted himself in the head. After the plane landed and it, the passengers, and the crew were subjected to a rather intensive search; an all clear was sounded. And there was silence. The dog is not barking.
I have not done a deliberate search for more information this morning as it has been busy and I have been away from the computer. I may be missing more data, in which case I will have to have an “Emily Latella moment”. But when I shut down last night, it was real quiet as far as information on the subject.
The government has declared officially that he was a Nigerian businessman who was ill. When the plane landed, he was taken into custody. I have seen no report that he was released, which one would normally expect. There are other reports, not confirmed, that a) once again, it was a cash purchase at the last minute, with no luggage, b) that he had barricaded himself in the head for over an hour and the crew and/or crew and passengers had to physically break down the door to get him out. Keep in mind that everyone has been on alert for similar incidents since the Christmas attempt. Thus the immediate reaction at DTW airport. At least some of the passengers should have been on edge and alert on that particular flight.
Yet, there has been all but an overt news blackout on the details of this one. The local FOX News affiliate put out a call for any of the passengers of that flight to contact them, and as far as I know have received no response. That is NOT normal. The imagery of the door to the head being broken down is sufficient to get someone to go for their 15 minutes of fame. Such would be noticed on board, even outside the immediate area of the heads. People on board a plane [especially one which probably has told everyone to sit down, shut up, and buckle in NOW] tend to notice loud noises and vibrations. We don’t know the name of the “businessman”, or his destination [DTW may be a transfer point], or his business. These are things that normally an unrestricted American media would ferret out for sensationalism if nothing else, unless they were acting to protect a Democrat [plenty of examples extant].
We have one hell of an anomaly here, and the dog is not only not barking, it may have been muzzled. I have more than a passing suspicion that the incident is not as benign as it is being presented. Further, the major media [which does whatever this administration wants] has been told to back off, and perhaps the passengers have been told that it is their “patriotic duty” to shut up.
That way, “the system” can be seen to have still be “working smoothly”. But that can only be a temporary fix purely for publicity purposes. The whole thing will blow up in the regime’s faces if word of another incident gets out. The only way to prevent that would involve a level of effort to protect this country that very few realists and observers of the regime can expect, in a very short period of time. And probably methods that the people on the pointy end of the stick now know with ontological certitude will get them court-martialed as soon as they are no longer of use to the regime.
The only timeline data that we have is every other day, and that is based on only two data points. NOT reliable. Still, while keeping on watch for a period of time, I would keep an eye on tomorrow and on New Years Eve. Just because people think and act in patterns unless they conciously try not to. But I would not depend on that timing. I still expect multiple attempts in keeping with Al Quada’s pattern when dealing with airliners, and at any time. [ In the original discussion thread at BELMONT CLUB, I have pointed out that in every Al Quada attack using airliners, they are not singletons. Thwarted mass bombing attack over the Pacific in 1995 - 11 airliners. 9/11 - 4 airliners, 3 of which hit their targets and 1 of which was stopped by an ad hoc unit of the Unorganized Militia of the United States. Thwarted mass attack in 2006 - a half dozen airliners which were to be blown up over the North Atlantic using liquid explosives.]
I know that I and my family are staying off of airliners as much as possible for the foreseeable future. We have some friends who are flying back to DC on New Years Eve, but flights originating domestically are somewhat less at risk from the data points we have; and they are going to be watching their fellow passengers. We already avoid what we call “Round-eye New Years” celebrations, because there are too many amateur drunks about and they are intrinsically dangerous, even without the risk of terrorism.
That leads us to a second point. Why the less than energetic response [by the regime]? I do not rule out the concept posited by others here that this is deliberate, because to put it bluntly an attack on the United States is desired for their own purposes which may or may not be parallel with the enemy. It may be a degree of incompetence, corruption, and lack of reality testing that certainly is not unreasonable given what we have seen since January 20. Or it may be opportunistic.
Let me offer a theory. Pretty much every action by this regime domestically has had the result, intentionally or otherwise, of destroying our economy and nationalizing as much of it as possible. Your opinion on this will vary according to your political leanings; but there is plenty of room for arguing the point in the affirmative.
A certain percentage of air travel by Americans is mandatory, due to business reasons or otherwise. But I rather suspect that a significant fraction, if not a majority [no hard data there, semi-informed conjecture off of the top of my head] is elective. You don’t have to vacation in California if you live in Nebraska. You don’t have to fly out to see aunt Tilly 3+ states away, etc.
Let us assume that as a result of a number of closely spaced airliner incidents [the calculus of this will be not dissimilar to that in the Three Conjectures, albeit with results affecting personal choices, not nuclear war] it becomes a rational assumption that the risk factor for flying is such that either alternative means of transportation or avoiding the trip become perceived as more desirable choices. Imagine the effect on the bottom line if there is even a 10% drop in elective flights.
Result: The airline industry goes Tango Uniform. It either disappears, or becomes similar to a Government Motors of the air. This, according to this regime, would be a doubleplus-good thing. Further, the amount of economic activity dependent directly, or as a derivative, of American domestic air travel will plummet. Consider what happened to Las Vegas after Obama decreed that business conventions there were evil. [Government bureaucrat seminars there are still virtuous.]. Another body blow, and once again Americans feel besieged and trapped. And after all, the ability of the proles to move around the country without the let, leave, or hindrance of the government is not viewed as a good thing by Statists. It is better that they be localized and dependent on the State.
Look to the sky for a while. And if something really nasty happens with an airliner, and the dog remains silent; you may want to ponder the ability or willingness of this regime to defend this country and its people. And maybe discuss it with your friends and neighbors.
One other quick item that I have not seen mentioned here, that may be of import.
For the first time in the history of Eretz Yisroel, the government of the State of Israel has called the heads of ALL its diplomatic missions worldwide home for classified briefings from the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister. One presumes that the subject would be something that they believe would not be safe to mention even in the strongest encryption over the air, or safe to send by diplomatic pouch. I suspect that they have a great deal of respect for the people working at Fort Meade, and a similar sized lack of trust in our current regime. Both have been earned.
The briefings are to run from 27 December – 31 December. I have no knowledge of the content of that briefing, obviously. I do have the slim hope that tiny Israel will act to save the West, as our own country will not. May I suggest that Kevlar codpieces and Nomex shorts [and other undergarments] might be appropriate wear in the new year for a number of reasons; foreign and domestic?
LC Subotai Bahadur, Lord Pao An